Gibby Calls For Biagini

Hit, Run, Score!: Fantasy Advice at Catcher

It is pretty clear that the season is underway, however in my opinion the position that has seen the most change to its fantasy value is at catcher. Going into the season all fantasy writers were glowing about the idea of having a full season of guys like Kyle Schwarber, Blake Swihart, Travis d’Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco. Most were even going as far as to say that catcher was deep enough to leave to a late round pick, as they will all have similar value throughout the draft. If you took this advice however,  you are now probably picking up waiver wire flyer after waiver wire flyer, or stashing that perfect prospect until their “inevitable” call up. This could have all been avoided if you were on top of drafting this shallow position early and leaving the deep positions (which I personally believe to be Outfield) to later in the draft. To try to help solidify your situation in a shallow position I have put together a list of the top 15 players at the catcher position for the remainder of the 2016 season, along with my projected numbers.

Rank	Name	Projected BA	Projected HR	Projected RBI	Projected SB	Projected R
1	Buster Posey	.302	21	101	3	81
2	Jonathan Lucroy	.275	15	83	2	62
3	Brian McCann	.240	30	99	0	75
4	Salvador Perez	.265	20	72	1	53
5	Stephen Vogt	.266	22	85	0	65
6	Yasmani Grandal	.252	25	71	0	55
7	Matt Wieters	.281	21	75	0	51
8	Wilson Ramos	.259	16	66	0	44
9	Yadier Molina	.291	11	62	2	49
10	Nick Hundley	.275	18	54	3	41
11	Francisco Cervelli	.284	9	58	2	40
12	JT Realmuto	.267	18	63	10	46
13	Welington Castillo	.252	21	61	0	42
14	Miguel Montero	.249	13	68	0	48
15	Russell Martin	.245	14	65	4	44

Warning Signs

Most players on this list are pretty dependable as they generally get the majority of their teams playing time. I would be more cautious about putting too much faith in Cervelli, Hundley and Montero. Cervelli will be fine when it comes to playing time as he is an excellent catcher defensively, and brings leadership to a Pirates pitching staff that is aiming to make a deep run into the post-season. Having said that, he is generally not an offensive threat.  He squeezes into the top 15 this year as he has gotten off to an excellent start this season posting a .346 batting average with 6 RBI and 7 runs. I don’t expect the average to maintain, but I do expect him to offer limited power.

Miguel Montero is a respectable major league player behind the plate but is replaceable at the dish. Montero thus far is of to a fine start posting a .276 average, 1 HR, 6 RBI and 6 runs. These numbers I believe are inflated due to the number of at bats he is getting with Kyle Schwarber sidelined for the remainder of the season. Rumor has it the Cubs are looking for help behind the plate, but if the Cubs continue to have a nice season watch for Montero to remain the Cubs catcher.  If he holds that position, he will continue to put up decent numbers this season.

Nick Hundley is the definition of “The Coors Field Effect” after resurrecting a mediocre career by playing last season in Colorado. Hundley last year posted a career high batting average of .301 besting his previous .288 which was posted in 2011 when he only played in 82 games. At the age of 32, Hundley also posted runner up numbers to his previous career best in all categories. His total stats from last year are .301/.339/.467 with 10 HR, 43 RBI and 5 SB in a total of 103 games played. The numbers from last year were impressive, but don’t allow an anomaly season to fool you.  Hundley is a career backup at best, and I believe it will be only a matter of time until the Rockies recent call up at catcher, Tony Wolters, makes his mark and starts taking time away from Nick Hundley. If I was to speculate, both catchers will have to keep one eye open as Rockies top prospect Dom Nunez climbs the ranks. Nunez is a multiple category threat at the catcher position.

Standout Impression

I know he has been shaky to start the season, but J.T. Realmuto shows skills that are rare at the catching position. Realmuto has shown the potential to steal bags in the minors (18), bat for average (.299), and provides some pop (12). Last year, in Realmuto’s first year in the majors, he was decent as a rookie catcher providing the Marlins with a .259 BA, 10 HR, 8 SB, and 47 RBI in 126 games that transferred into 441 at bats. The Marlins have zero reason not to give Realmuto a full shot at the show this year, and providing he does not get injured, I project that he improves upon last years numbers and finishes as a top 12 catcher. However, it would not surprise me to see Realmuto sneak into top ten if he improves his average and manages to get to 10 plus steals.   

Suggestions

The best fantasy advice I can give a fantasy manager struggling at the catcher, or any position, would be to buy into the buy-low theory of fantasy baseball. For instance, let's use Russell Martin as an example. I believe that Martin will increase his statistical output from May to end of season and we will start seeing some regression back to slightly below his career average numbers. If I am correct the owner that grabs Martin now will be in for slightly above career average production from Martin.  So, find the owner in your league that has drafted Russell Martin and offer him a middling bench player that will help them at a position of weakness. For example, you have two players at second base and you can afford to let one go in a trade. A good offer would be your catcher and your second base option for their catcher (best player in trade) and their worst player. I always include the other manager's worst player in a deal where I believe I am benefiting by getting the best player in the deal. This usually makes the other manager feel as if they are “upgrading” by losing their worst statistical player and will increase the likelihood that they accept the offer.

If you have found yourself in a situation where your catcher is a drag on your fantasy team by injury, a poor draft, or even a lost job all is not lost.  Get in front of the problem quickly by addressing the situation early on. Identify your target and do not limit yourself to certain players.   Be open to all players (especially the buy low candidates) and always remember that an offer opens a conversation and a conversation can lead to a sale.

Curtis

After Eight

Eight games in.  Eight relievers used.

Prior to Wednesday night's game the Jays were sitting at an incredibly disappointing 3-5.  With many experts picking the Jays as division winners, it’s not the start anyone really had in mind.  The great thing about an MLB season however, is that there are still…  wait for it... 154 games left.  Fans who are already slamming on the panic button need to stop, take a breath, and enjoy that we are back watching meaningful baseball.  Having said that, there are a couple areas that have been the focus of the Jays not-so-ideal start.

Despite losing 5 of 8, the Jays had the lead in every game this season.  Whenever that’s the case the pen is going to be under significant scrutiny.  So after 10 games, what do the numbers say?

h/t www.fangraphs.com

Right off the bat, we’re dealt a shocker with Gavin Floyd.  Floyd has continued to build off of an impressive spring to put up the highest WAR among relievers through eight games.  Pitching in more innings than any other reliever other than Osuna to date, he has maintained an excellent 13.5 K/9.  Even a great xFIP of 1.21 pulls in the direction of Floyd being more unlucky than lucky, and a realistic BABIP of 0.286 doesn’t seem to skew the stat line.  The only earned runs he has allowed were given up by Arnold Leon after being pulled in the 8th against Tampa Bay.  After JA Happ allowed a leadoff walk to Kiermeier in the bottom of the seventh Floyd was brought in.  Floyd was excellent, getting the next three outs (striking out Dickerson and Morrison in the process), and preventing the inherited base runner from scoring.  The 8th didn’t start as well however for Floyd when he gave up two singles to Longoria and Jennings.  Despite the singles, Floyd still seemed in relative control. Longoria and Jennings hits were both soft contact and were helped along mightily by the BABIP monster.  Floyd had also struck out Pearce in the middle of the two.  Only up by one run at the time and with very little room for error with a runner on third however, the choice to lift him is a far from controversial one.  Who he was replaced with though is where I believe that poor bullpen management had an affect on Floyd's stat line. This situation was about as high leverage as you’re going to get.  The LI going in was 5.50. The highest leverage of the game by over 2 points.  The resulting homer resulted in a MASSIVE wPA of .465!  Osuna should have been in for this situation.  Period.  Not a pitcher with only 26 MLB innings to his name, and a less than 9 k/9 in his AAA career.  Would Osuna have given those runs up?  Maybe.  But I’m giving Osuna, and in turn Floyd the benefit of the doubt here.  Floyd has been excellent, and that’s great to see.

Osuna is up next tying Floyd with the highest WAR through 8 games.  Through 4 innings pitched, he has been just as advertised.  Impressive strikeout numbers, a phenomenal whip of 0.5, very low xfip of 1.44 and again a BABIP of 0.250 that doesn’t appear to skew the numbers too much.  Combine that with a 3 for 3 in save attempts  and all are excellent signs that so far he was 100% the right choice as closer.  There isn’t much to dissect hear, as Osuna is one of the few that is living up to expectations.  Two pitchers in, and the pen has been great.

Sadly. This is where the great performances to start the year come to an end.  The next two relievers slide in at replacement level through two games.  Even though it has been nothing special, Biagini has performed very well as a rule 5 pick.  Well enough that we have now seen him win a spot on the team over Leon, who has been sent down to bring up ambidextrous phenom Pat Venditte.  Biagini is the only pitcher so far this season outside of Osuna and Morales (who has only pitched to 2 batters) to not give up an earned run.  He has only been used in low leverage situations,  seen a little bit of babip help (.200), has a high BB/9, and by xFIP benefited a little from luck (3.55), but still is as expected, or even slightly better.  You’re always going to have to have guys to pitch in mop up duty, and Biagini is proven to be a good bet for those situations, but nothing more so far.

Jesse Chavez is the next man to slot in around replacement level.  A starter at the end of last year, he’s been a guy that the Jays were hopeful could be a “swiss army knife” type of guy .  He could fight for the fifth starter job, and could also go to the pen in a long relief situation, or ramp it up for late inning high leverage at bats as well.  Chavez has put a few too many guys on base early this year with 2.70 walk rate resulting in a 1.80 WHIP.  Fortunately he has more than balanced out the walks by putting up an incredible 16.20 K/9.  Even with the high walk rate that gaudy number has him tied with Osuna for team lead in the K/BB category (6.00).  With those numbers, you’re looking to Chavez if you need a strikeout, which is exactly what happened in the sixth against Boston.  Stroman loaded up the bases in the top, and Chavez was brought in to put a bullet in it.  Unfortunately, after a first pitch called strike, Brock Holt blasted the next pitch for a Grand Slam, getting the Red Sox right back in a game that should have been well out of reach.  Jesse Chavez has been good for sure, but these high leverage situations are when relief pitchers prove their worth.  Chavez isn’t worth worrying about until he shows that can’t be trusted in these situations, and a one inning anomaly this early is far from enough to remove trust.

The next two pitchers to that have pitched this year are Morales and Leon.  At this point it isn’t worth breaking down their performances. Morales has only faced two batters, leaving very little data to break down, and is also resting up on the DL for the immediate future.  In regards to Leon, as mentioned earlier, his poor performance and need for a lefty has led to him being DFA’d to make room for Venditte.  Leon may be back, but he’s going to have to pitch much better at AAA. Venditte or Biagini will both have to struggle mightily to justify a call up, and that’s not even taking into account Loup or Morales returning from the DL, or how Tepera is performing in AAA.

The final two pitchers are the worst performers thus far, and are unfortunately the two who were supposed to be the best.  To start, Storen has been one of the major disappointments to start the year with a bloated ERA (7.71), WHIP (2.14), BB/9 (3.86) and team low 7.71 k/9.  For a pitcher that many had pegged as the closer at some point (myself included) these numbers are putrid.  Storen has seen his velocity decrease on all 4 of his pitches, by as much as 2.4 mph.  His fastball and sinker have been largely ineffective with a .500 opponent avg, and he has also seen reduced swinging strike percentage on his fastball (7.7%) and change up (0 swinging strikes to date).  Working with an incredibly small sample size, as mentioned before there is no reason to be slamming the panic button, but he is one of the guys that needs to be watched going forward.

Just as disappointing so far has been Brett Cecil.  Cecil finished the second half of last year being arguably the best reliever in baseball.  Holding a streak that equaled the all time record of 38 straight scoreless innings, it seemed as though no-one would score off of the lefty ever again.  After his first appearance of the year, he looked just as good as ever pitching a perfect bottom of the 7th while striking out Longoria and Dickerson.  Specs performed just as we have come to expect, but it fell apart from there.  Over his next three appearances he combined for  just 1.2 innings while allowing 5 hits, 3 earned runs, a walk and only 2 strike outs.  Blatantly put, he has been just awful.  Even with the 1 excellent inning his overall stat line includes an appalling 0.357 opponent average, 2.25 whip, 10.13 ERA, 3.38 BB/9 and 5.46 xFIP.  If you’re looking for any kind of positive, you can at least reach for the BABIP monster rearing his head with a very high .444 (a perfect example of this is the little flare that allowed a run to score yesterday vs the Yankees).  Just like Storen, Cecil is seeing a decrease in velocity on all of his pitches, but in his case not as much to be of concern.  His movement has also remained stable, and his zone location has also remained constant.  What sticks out like a sore thumb is the swinging strike percentage on his curveball.  Already the pitch being used the most so far this season (25 pitches) he’s been in the zone just as much as last year (36%) but has seen his swinging strike percentage drop a ridiculous 15.7%.  This drop is most likely attributed to hitters being much more disciplined against him so far, swinging at only 18.8% of curveballs thrown outside of the zone, compared to a phenomenal 50.5% last year.  Again, the sample size is small, so there should be an element of regression to the norm to happen here.  Having said that however, this distinct change in the data also supports the theory that hitters have figured out that they can wait out Cecil’s breaking ball.  If that’s the case Cecil may have to make some adjustments to get back to elite status.

As a whole the bullpen has really been split so far this season.  Two of the eight have been excellent, and performing to a level putting the team in a position to win.  Two have been slightly above average, giving decent contributions.  Two have become irrelevant in the near future, one through injury and one through poor performance, and two have significantly underperformed.  The problem with the pen right now is that the two that are underperforming are the two that the Jays need to rely on in the highest leverage situations.  There’s room for improvement on the “Mediocre Two” for sure, but until the high leverage set up guys can get back in the groove, and reach their proven potential again, this bullpen will be in trouble. 

Venditte Making His Blue Jays Debut

#amphibious

Closing Time

In fantasy baseball a lot of wins can come from getting help from the bullpen. It is a simple minded player that believes the relief pitcher only provides help in one category, saves. A relief pitcher brings much more to the table. Relief pitchers are ERA and WHIP condensers, more often than not they sport a low ERA and WHIP which in turn can lower your team total ERA and WHIP. A team's closer is very often a team's best relief pitcher. They are called upon to finish the game, and if they are any good at their job can close a game with minimal drama. Minimal drama meaning no base runners, no runs given up and most importantly high possibility of a strikeout. A great reliever can possibly strike out the side. Think of that, three potential strikeouts to add to your total from a pitcher that more often than not pitches one inning.

This year many analysts have suggested waiting for a closer or stockpiling the mediocre and using them based upon their match up or your team needs on a week to week basis. I believe it is crucial for your bullpen to have at least one top notch closer.  A dependable guy that you don’t have to worry about blowing up and losing his job. This is key to “relieve” the stress of fantasy and help your pocket book grow. The following are closing situations that will need to be monitored closely and could help out the fantasy owner that forgot or neglected the closer position.

Tigers are poised, as per usual, to have a good season with new additions to the mound and batter's box. It is likely they should rack up a lot of save opportunities but in my opinion currently have the wrong guy closing out games.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Francisco Rodriguez	11.57	2.57	2	2.1	1/2
Handcuff	ERA	Whip	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Mark Lowe	3.00	0.67	3	3.0	0/0

The Texas Rangers made huge improvements last year. They pushed my Jays to the brink of elimination. If not for a few costly errors and epic bat flip may have found themselves in the ALCS. Coming into this season, the Rangers looked ready to return to the post-season and push for baseball in October but early on they have run into trouble late in games.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Shawn Tolleson	22.50	3.50	2	2.0	2/3
Handcuff	ERA	Whip	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Sam Dyson	2.08	1.38	3	4.1	0/0
Cyanocitta recommends	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Keone Kela	7.36	1.36	7	3.2	0/0

The backup to Tolleson has developed some controversy in the fantasy world but personally I am drawn to Keone Kela. Just look at Kela’s strikeouts and the power he possesses. If not for a bad inning his ERA would be lower as well. If Kela gets the job he has Chapman upside without the suspension history.

The Cleveland Indians have a world class rotation that rivals that of the New York Mets. One problem, they do not have a reliable closer. If the Indians believe that they can make a push and get into the post-season they are going to have to find a finisher. Cody Allen seems to convert his opportunities but they are never clean. It will only be a matter of time until his inability to close is converted to loses.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Cody Allen	13.50	1.50	1	1.1	1/1
Handcuff	ERA	Whip	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Zach McAllister	0.00	0.50	1	2.0	0/0

Zach McAllister is a definite dark horse pick. The former starting prospect could find his career resurrected out of the bullpen, more specifically as the closer for a potential post-season bound Cleveland Indians. It sounds out there but if given the chance Zach McAllister has Zach Britton like stuff out of the pen. His hard cut fastball can match that of Brittons sinker and they both can lean on their breaking ball in pitcher counts.

The Oakland Athletics have held onto Sean Doolittle for the duration of his major league career in hopes that he would finally fulfill his baseball potential. Unfortunately, a wrath of injuries and nagging issues have seemed to keep Doolittle from doing anything special. It is time the Athletics let the lefty be what he is, a left handed specialist out of the pen and move on from the thought that Doolittle can close. No more platoon at closer and give Madson the ball.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Sean Doolittle	5.79	1.71	4	4.2	1/2
Handcuff	ERA	Whip	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Ryan Madson	3.60	1.00	5	5.0	2/2

The top arms at the position are consistent and leave nothing to the imagination, they come in do their job and get the results a fantasy team requires. As predicted at the beginning of the season the top performers stay as top performers and bring consistency and help level bloated ERA’s and WHIP. As expected here are your fantasy standouts.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Jonathan Papelbon	2.25	1.00	4	4.0	4/4
Roberto Osuna	0.00	0.50	6	4.0	3/3
Wade Davis	0.00	1.25	6	4.0	3/3
Houston Street	0.00	0.00	2	4.1	3/3
Mark Melancon	2.08	0.98	2	4.1	3/3
Zach Britton	2.25	1.25	5	4.0	3/3

The closer positions will be a wild ride with ups and downs all season among the lower ranked arms. Having said that, here is a breakout at the position that should retain his job.

Jeanmar Gomez of the Philadelphia Phillies was the third reliever to get a crack at the closing job and finally they have a reliever that looks like a major league player. Phillies had been sporting a double A bullpen since 2013 with the exception of a couple closer that they parted with, Jonathan Papelbon and more recently Ken Giles, and looked as if they were heading in the same direction. After David Hernandez flopped and Dalier Hinojosa choked, Jeanmar Gomez stepped up and has recently been red hot. Gomez should retain his position as the Phillies have nothing to lose.

Current closer	ERA	WHIP	Strikeouts	IP	S/Attempts
Jeanmar Gomez	0.00	0.50	2	4.0	3/3

Now it is early in the season and there is no need to freak out, but there are a couple of deserving players that are out there and able to be scooped up as they are 3 category savers and serve a purpose for points. If you are thin at the position it will benefit you to look at the studs as potential players to trade for. If you can piece together a trade to bring in the right guy you will not be a river rat on the waiver wire all season.

Curtis