It is pretty clear that the season is underway, however in my opinion the position that has seen the most change to its fantasy value is at catcher. Going into the season all fantasy writers were glowing about the idea of having a full season of guys like Kyle Schwarber, Blake Swihart, Travis d’Arnaud and Devin Mesoraco. Most were even going as far as to say that catcher was deep enough to leave to a late round pick, as they will all have similar value throughout the draft. If you took this advice however, you are now probably picking up waiver wire flyer after waiver wire flyer, or stashing that perfect prospect until their “inevitable” call up. This could have all been avoided if you were on top of drafting this shallow position early and leaving the deep positions (which I personally believe to be Outfield) to later in the draft. To try to help solidify your situation in a shallow position I have put together a list of the top 15 players at the catcher position for the remainder of the 2016 season, along with my projected numbers.
Rank
|
Name
|
Projected BA
|
Projected HR
|
Projected RBI
|
Projected SB
|
Projected R
|
1
|
Buster Posey
|
.302
|
21
|
101
|
3
|
81
|
2
|
Jonathan Lucroy
|
.275
|
15
|
83
|
2
|
62
|
3
|
Brian McCann
|
.240
|
30
|
99
|
0
|
75
|
4
|
Salvador Perez
|
.265
|
20
|
72
|
1
|
53
|
5
|
Stephen Vogt
|
.266
|
22
|
85
|
0
|
65
|
6
|
Yasmani Grandal
|
.252
|
25
|
71
|
0
|
55
|
7
|
Matt Wieters
|
.281
|
21
|
75
|
0
|
51
|
8
|
Wilson Ramos
|
.259
|
16
|
66
|
0
|
44
|
9
|
Yadier Molina
|
.291
|
11
|
62
|
2
|
49
|
10
|
Nick Hundley
|
.275
|
18
|
54
|
3
|
41
|
11
|
Francisco Cervelli
|
.284
|
9
|
58
|
2
|
40
|
12
|
JT Realmuto
|
.267
|
18
|
63
|
10
|
46
|
13
|
Welington Castillo
|
.252
|
21
|
61
|
0
|
42
|
14
|
Miguel Montero
|
.249
|
13
|
68
|
0
|
48
|
15
|
Russell Martin
|
.245
|
14
|
65
|
4
|
44
|
Warning Signs
Most players on this list are pretty dependable as they generally get the majority of their teams playing time. I would be more cautious about putting too much faith in Cervelli, Hundley and Montero. Cervelli will be fine when it comes to playing time as he is an excellent catcher defensively, and brings leadership to a Pirates pitching staff that is aiming to make a deep run into the post-season. Having said that, he is generally not an offensive threat. He squeezes into the top 15 this year as he has gotten off to an excellent start this season posting a .346 batting average with 6 RBI and 7 runs. I don’t expect the average to maintain, but I do expect him to offer limited power.
Miguel Montero is a respectable major league player behind the plate but is replaceable at the dish. Montero thus far is of to a fine start posting a .276 average, 1 HR, 6 RBI and 6 runs. These numbers I believe are inflated due to the number of at bats he is getting with Kyle Schwarber sidelined for the remainder of the season. Rumor has it the Cubs are looking for help behind the plate, but if the Cubs continue to have a nice season watch for Montero to remain the Cubs catcher. If he holds that position, he will continue to put up decent numbers this season.
Nick Hundley is the definition of “The Coors Field Effect” after resurrecting a mediocre career by playing last season in Colorado. Hundley last year posted a career high batting average of .301 besting his previous .288 which was posted in 2011 when he only played in 82 games. At the age of 32, Hundley also posted runner up numbers to his previous career best in all categories. His total stats from last year are .301/.339/.467 with 10 HR, 43 RBI and 5 SB in a total of 103 games played. The numbers from last year were impressive, but don’t allow an anomaly season to fool you. Hundley is a career backup at best, and I believe it will be only a matter of time until the Rockies recent call up at catcher, Tony Wolters, makes his mark and starts taking time away from Nick Hundley. If I was to speculate, both catchers will have to keep one eye open as Rockies top prospect Dom Nunez climbs the ranks. Nunez is a multiple category threat at the catcher position.
Standout Impression
I know he has been shaky to start the season, but J.T. Realmuto shows skills that are rare at the catching position. Realmuto has shown the potential to steal bags in the minors (18), bat for average (.299), and provides some pop (12). Last year, in Realmuto’s first year in the majors, he was decent as a rookie catcher providing the Marlins with a .259 BA, 10 HR, 8 SB, and 47 RBI in 126 games that transferred into 441 at bats. The Marlins have zero reason not to give Realmuto a full shot at the show this year, and providing he does not get injured, I project that he improves upon last years numbers and finishes as a top 12 catcher. However, it would not surprise me to see Realmuto sneak into top ten if he improves his average and manages to get to 10 plus steals.
Suggestions
The best fantasy advice I can give a fantasy manager struggling at the catcher, or any position, would be to buy into the buy-low theory of fantasy baseball. For instance, let's use Russell Martin as an example. I believe that Martin will increase his statistical output from May to end of season and we will start seeing some regression back to slightly below his career average numbers. If I am correct the owner that grabs Martin now will be in for slightly above career average production from Martin. So, find the owner in your league that has drafted Russell Martin and offer him a middling bench player that will help them at a position of weakness. For example, you have two players at second base and you can afford to let one go in a trade. A good offer would be your catcher and your second base option for their catcher (best player in trade) and their worst player. I always include the other manager's worst player in a deal where I believe I am benefiting by getting the best player in the deal. This usually makes the other manager feel as if they are “upgrading” by losing their worst statistical player and will increase the likelihood that they accept the offer.
If you have found yourself in a situation where your catcher is a drag on your fantasy team by injury, a poor draft, or even a lost job all is not lost. Get in front of the problem quickly by addressing the situation early on. Identify your target and do not limit yourself to certain players. Be open to all players (especially the buy low candidates) and always remember that an offer opens a conversation and a conversation can lead to a sale.
Curtis
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